CAPE DoubleLine Shiller CAPE U.S. Equities ETF

DoubleLine Shiller CAPE U.S. Equities ETF (CAPE) currently reports 152 stock positions (subject to change), placing it in the widely spread range by holdings breadth. The top line-up is META (4.45%), LIN (4.01%), GOOGL (3.18%), with META as the largest single weight at 4.45%. Together, the top three holdings account for 11.64%, which points to a relatively flat weight distribution where no single cluster of names dominates outcomes. The weight distribution suggests a portfolio designed to capture thematic upside while avoiding excessive dependence on any single name outside the largest positions.

Assessing the quality of returns on invested capital, ROIC is 13.61%, WACC is 7.96%, and the economic spread is 5.65%. On balance, the economic spread is thin but positive — the portfolio's businesses are clearing the hurdle, though without significant headroom. Supporting metrics show ROE at 25.58% and ROA at 6.94%, a combination that helps frame whether profitability strength is broad enough to hold through different market conditions. Taken together, the return profile suggests a portfolio that is value-creative but with less room for execution slippage.

The market currently prices the portfolio at trailing P/E of 22.17, forward P/E of 20.29, PEG of 4.39. The gap between P/E and forward P/E is small, suggesting the valuation is not contingent on a near-term earnings step-change. The PEG ratio signals premium pricing — the portfolio's earnings growth expectations, while present, do not fully explain the current multiple on a purely quantitative basis. The current ratio of 1.55 is in an acceptable range, reflecting reasonable short-term financial health. Valuation and liquidity together frame a portfolio where the price paid today is a reasonable bet on earnings delivery — but not a margin-of-safety purchase at current levels.

Looking at margins from gross to free cash flow, gross margin sits at 50.67%, operating margin at 22.58%, and free cash flow margin at 14.09%. Gross margins are constructive — not exceptional, but indicative of businesses with reasonable unit economics. At this level, operating margins reflect businesses that are scaling with discipline without dramatic cost pressure. The portfolio's cash conversion is middle-of-the-road — sufficient for operational needs, but leaving limited surplus for discretionary allocation. Together, these margins describe a portfolio where business quality varies — and where macro or sector headwinds could disproportionately impact the weaker-margin holdings.

Projected 12-month EPS growth of 9.3% is a constructive signal — measured earnings expansion supports the forward valuation case without relying on aggressive extrapolation. Zooming out from the valuation discussion, TTM revenue growth of 10.50% pointing to stable operational progress without outsized acceleration, while the estimated 12-month price change of 15.49%, where target prices point to mid-range appreciation potential from current levels. Anchoring to reported revenues provides discipline; analyst price targets add context about how the market currently values that operating reality. The path to realizing analyst-implied returns runs through revenue execution, margin stability, and a macro environment that doesn't undermine either. The estimated 12-month price change is a weighted composite of analyst price target estimates adjusted by each holding's ETF weight, sourced from publicly available data, and should not be interpreted as a reliable prediction of future performance.

Taken together, the metrics present a favorable setup — not without risk, but with enough quality and momentum to support a positive view.

The views expressed above are derived from quantitative data only and should not be relied upon as financial advice. Investment decisions should be based on your own research and risk tolerance.