CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc

Chipotle Mexican Grill operates a fast-casual restaurant chain focused on burritos, bowls, and tacos made with responsibly sourced ingredients. Sector: Consumer Discretionary.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) is an individual stock. The analysis below presents key financial metrics for the company, covering profitability, capital efficiency, valuation, margins, and growth.

On a capital return basis, ROIC is 18.88%, WACC is 9.07%, and the economic spread is 9.81%. On balance, the economic spread is positive but compressed — adequate for value preservation, less convincing for aggressive compounding. Supporting metrics show ROE at 49.79% and ROA at 14.14%, a combination that helps frame whether profitability strength is broad enough to hold through different market conditions. Taken together, the return profile suggests a company that is value-creative but with less room for execution slippage.

On an earnings multiple basis, trailing P/E of 28.97, forward P/E of 23.77, PEG of 1.36. The spread between trailing and forward P/E is moderate, suggesting some earnings improvement is expected but not a dramatic re-rating. At this PEG level, growth-adjusted valuation looks attractive — the market appears to be paying a reasonable price for the earnings growth embedded in estimates. A current ratio of 0.72 signals that short-term coverage is tighter than typical across the company. Combining multiples and liquidity, the company appears adequately priced for its current earnings trajectory, with balance sheet health providing a degree of downside resilience.

Stripping to unit economics, gross margin sits at 30.23%, operating margin at 15.34%, and free cash flow margin at 12.63%. Gross margins are moderate, reflecting industry conditions where input costs weigh more heavily on revenue. The operating margin reading is constructive, suggesting management teams are managing overhead costs effectively. At this FCF margin level, cash conversion is functional without being a standout feature of the company's quality profile. Read as a whole, the margin picture suggests a business with strengths in parts but no clear margin dominance end-to-end.

Revenue trends and analyst expectations together suggest: TTM revenue growth of 9.31% indicating steady top-line growth at the company level, while the estimated 12-month price change of 37.13%, where consensus targets imply substantial appreciation potential over the next 12 months. At 21.9%, the projected 12-month EPS growth rate is strong enough to be a primary driver of the forward investment case rather than a peripheral supporting detail. There is always distance between what is reported and what is priced; the question of whether that distance is closing or widening is what makes the setup interesting. In either direction, the fundamental driver of returns will be whether the company can sustain the trajectory that is already being priced. The estimated 12-month price change is based on analyst consensus price target estimates, sourced from publicly available data, and should not be interpreted as a reliable prediction of future performance.

The aggregate picture across capital efficiency, valuation, growth, and cash generation builds a compelling case.

The analysis above draws from quantitative data only and does not constitute personalized financial advice. Investors should conduct independent research and consider professional guidance before acting on any information presented here.