VST Vistra

Vistra Corp is a retail electricity and natural gas provider and independent power producer, holding one of the largest multi-fuel generation portfolios in the United States. Sector: Energy.

Vistra (VST) is an individual stock. The analysis below presents key financial metrics for the company, covering profitability, capital efficiency, valuation, margins, and growth.

From a returns-on-capital standpoint, ROIC is 5.21%, WACC is 10.80%, and the economic spread is -5.59%. On balance, ROIC falls short of WACC, meaning the company is not yet generating returns sufficient to cover their cost of capital. Supporting metrics show ROE at 18.07% and ROA at 2.96%, a combination that helps frame whether profitability strength is broad enough to hold through different market conditions. Taken together, the return profile suggests a company that likely needs operating improvement before returns quality can be considered durable.

The company's current market valuation reflects trailing P/E of 69.51, forward P/E of 17.46, PEG of 0.99. Forward P/E is significantly below trailing, indicating that consensus expects earnings to grow — making the company appear cheaper when viewed on anticipated profits. On a PEG basis, the company screens as attractively priced relative to its expected earnings growth. The aggregate current ratio of 0.78 points to tighter short-term liquidity across the company. Across multiples and liquidity, the company is priced in a way that reflects current expectations reasonably well — leaving limited room for error, but also limited near-term downside from valuation compression alone.

On profitability at each income statement layer, gross margin sits at 33.06%, operating margin at 12.25%, and free cash flow margin at 7.43%. Gross margins are moderate, pointing to the company where unit economics are functional but not a source of structural advantage. The operating margin reading is modest, consistent with businesses still working to scale their cost structures efficiently. Free cash flow margins are moderate, with a meaningful but not exceptional share of revenue converting to cash after capex. Taken together, margins are adequate but uneven, suggesting earnings quality is not uniformly strong across all levels.

Looking at what the company are actually delivering versus what analysts are pricing in, TTM revenue growth of 13.55% indicating top-line growth that is constructive without being speculative. At the same time, the estimated 12-month price change of 54.41%, where target-based upside appears notably strong in the current setup. Revenue growth captures operating momentum, while price targets reflect external expectations that can move with rates, risk appetite, and sector sentiment. Whether current momentum translates into delivered returns will depend on the durability of both top-line trends and the assumptions embedded in analyst targets. The estimated 12-month price change is based on analyst consensus price target estimates, sourced from publicly available data, and should not be interpreted as a reliable prediction of future performance.

Putting the pieces together, this is a profile with genuine merit: the numbers support confidence in the forward case without requiring heroic assumptions.

This assessment is based solely on the quantitative metrics presented above and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should consider their own risk tolerance and conduct independent research before making investment decisions.